TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,601

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,573 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4a72…9d77backed Yes20c552.69$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.353745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes16c430.59$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.673,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes15c398.95$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.799747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7531…35debacked Yes18c337.65$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.414117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No79c336.92$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes18c279.28$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.664333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes23c272.82$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.643,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No80c253.28$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.892028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No79c252.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1281165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x087e…df61backed No77c245.21$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.71366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes17c240$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes20c213.74$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.783,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes18c200.65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9824442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes18c193.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1340025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c185.94$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.952,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9689…65cfbacked Yes24c180.37$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49d5…1eb0backed No79c177.86$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.614344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes19c172.56$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4723743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c166.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.127,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes19c164.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9676924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes27c151.49$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.61,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…8f7abacked No75c149.79$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.963046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes17c145$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.931442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes34c144.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.31,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No79c138.2$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed Yes19c133.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No78c133.46$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.731,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c122.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.737,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes34c121.13$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7963538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No73c119.99$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.44963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No70c118.48$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes21c116$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.193,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No79c112.16$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.492,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes17c109$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5394919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes21c107.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.195,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes21c106.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.466823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes14c103.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.484022.5%9 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes29c101.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2616030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1732132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x420d…544abacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.925940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.361,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2412638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes27c96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6345148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes21c93.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No75c92.96$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9697570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c92.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x353b…e535backed Yes16c89.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.46547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes19c89.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…3304backed Yes19c85.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.199830.6%30 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No79c79.66$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.672,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes16c78.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.670133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes14c77.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7934250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e4…7b02backed Yes33c76.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes20c73.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.818814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No77c71.38$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7152571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d34…a917backed Yes23c70$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.15534.5%19 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes18c66.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.016016.7%10 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x925f…70c2backed Yes25c64.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2060…9e6cbacked No78c64.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.264766%31 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes20c61.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1232352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe559…eaaebacked Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes21c57.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0233243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No78c55.54$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4455855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No70c53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6822450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x003a…f898backed Yes28c52.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No76c51.63$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.582,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.39,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No77c49.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.572466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes22c49.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.991,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No74c47.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.362770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c1…26a6backed Yes24c46.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No77c45.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2812564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No70c45.11$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.422,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes30c41.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4244945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c40.24$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.84,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0820…4b09backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+46%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b3e…ab35backed Yes28c39.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No79c39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1618272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes30c38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.416234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5005…620cbacked No79c37.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.995961%36 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes32c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1242049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x232a…4895backed No80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.59053.3%48 W · 42 L-9.8wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-24.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes29c37.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1139427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No75c36.89$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.220161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dba…5b01backed No77c36.51$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.495766.7%38 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c08…724fbacked No76c35.57$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.426073.3%44 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2aa…3e28backed No77c30.24$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.875959.3%35 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No75c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5514671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No74c26.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.871,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9719772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca30…7eb2backed No78c25.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.661580%12 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No66c25.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5190734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.254,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.317066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No74c21.91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6648672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No77c21.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1211664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7421272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No71c21.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1222853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecd5…ebdcbacked No78c20.39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.396481.3%52 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick71cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No74c16.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2221676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.