Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbb500d38ece62339a395aeeb638a40c244b4a188fbcc9e69e99fd7060ce8ca1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 40c | 693.6$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.56 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 70c | 675.66$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.98 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…65cfbacked No | 64c | 563.05$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 67c | 480.39$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.65 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 410.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 30c | 366.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.88 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 31c | 339.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.32 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…ae40backed Yes | 61c | 285.38$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.8 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 280.61$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 55c | 280$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.79 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 65c | 276.87$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 273.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 273.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 266.97$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Yes | 63c | 258.14$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 253$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 48c | 231$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 57c | 219.97$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 34c | 218.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 38c | 202.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.77 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 55c | 202.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 75c | 201.88$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.68 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.85 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 44c | 189.65$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Yes | 56c | 177.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 36c | 172.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 30c | 171$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.91 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 59c | 168.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 61c | 164.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 22c | 159.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd932…af3cbacked Yes | 41c | 158.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 156.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 42c | 155.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 149.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 29c | 140.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 36c | 135.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 20c | 132.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 57c | 132.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 122.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 21c | 118.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 34c | 117.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 27c | 115.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…5d47backed Yes | 40c | 111.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 27c | 111.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 107.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 42c | 104$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 64c | 100.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 95.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 32c | 91.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 57c | 91.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 57c | 87.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 41c | 87.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 87.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 62c | 85.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 59c | 84.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…374fbacked Yes | 60c | 83.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed Yes | 53c | 83.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 37c | 81.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 34c | 77.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 25c | 73.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 65.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 45c | 63.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed Yes | 64c | 61.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 60.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 42c | 60.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…eaaebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 58.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 39c | 58.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 52c | 57.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 50c | 57.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 60c | 57.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 56.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 57c | 52.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 43c | 52.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 57c | 52.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 58c | 51.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 59c | 50.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 42c | 49.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 62c | 48.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 48.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 57c | 48.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 44c | 48.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 25c | 47.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 47.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked Yes | 50c | 45.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.