TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,735 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes11c1,010$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.768,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes5c725.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.721,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes25c631.57$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes31c474.93$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.521,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c459.28$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.94,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c418.3$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.25,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No65c376.3$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.9480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c301.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.913,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No65c299.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1052,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes8c294.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7823538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94ce…9909backed Yes39c259.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-79%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes28c229.01$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2541331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes27c220.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.481,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c206.81$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.129,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes15c197.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No73c186.66$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.544,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c180.56$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.33,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes9c160$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.821,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes35c159$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No75c153.49$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0760054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes27c149.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0422335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes33c149.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.812,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes26c145.38$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.835325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes29c143.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.647,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1fe8…6e25backed No72c140.01$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No74c139.98$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.391,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c120.84$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.245,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c120$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.135,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes33c115.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5815334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19bd…ae36backed Yes21c114$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.69119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-83.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes18c112.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x340c…f130backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.326637.9%25 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1924432.8%80 W · 164 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes11c99.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2854234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes34c95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.927047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c93.34$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.178,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a65…ef56backed Yes23c91.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+42.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes15c91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.517310.4%18 W · 155 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13bd…a84fbacked Yes22c90.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked Yes38c85.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.456243.5%27 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes25c84.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.155,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c82.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes19c80$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.552020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes16c77.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No75c76.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5916550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No70c76.2$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.061,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked No66c74.3$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5131043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes29c74.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.482,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes33c72.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0154547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.917324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.792,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No68c66.01$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.42,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No79c61.89$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.713,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cae…e877backed Yes38c61.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.353724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-3.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes25c61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.391,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c60.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes36c59.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5914043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ede…3e6ebacked Yes22c58.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes35c57.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes35c56.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.761,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No61c55.45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.393,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes37c54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No72c53.71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.862,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8e4…325cbacked Yes35c53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes22c52.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6390734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No69c52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.067,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe179…63e9backed Yes29c52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.143354.5%18 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes39c51.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes32c51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3616724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba5…af82backed Yes30c50.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No71c50.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.721,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15c0…befdbacked Yes35c50.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.752931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f22…db25backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.523941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bee…e91ebacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1186226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes28c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes29c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.517637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No68c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163661.1%22 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35b6…caadbacked Yes37c48.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184369.8%30 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes26c46.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1435137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb29…2321backed Yes32c43.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.063622.2%8 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No65c40.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2958152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…74f9backed No76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.478250%41 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No64c39.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.281,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed Yes35c35.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.559746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No74c35.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x734b…2a2cbacked No66c35.26$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.993452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No68c35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.215666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No74c34.53$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.882,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No73c32.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.643,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.615669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.24,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x276a…d445backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c27.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.992,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No79c25.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.452,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.