Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb7e4ae4b15bcafba521e4dd93fee2153be727f67979d05565d960f41edc423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 1,010$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 725.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 25c | 631.57$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.52 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 31c | 474.93$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.52 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 459.28$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 418.3$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 376.3$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 301.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 299.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 8c | 294.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…9909backed Yes | 39c | 259.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 28c | 229.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 27c | 220.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 206.81$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 197.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 186.66$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 180.56$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 159$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 153.49$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 27c | 149.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 149.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 26c | 145.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 143.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…6e25backed No | 72c | 140.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 139.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 120.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 33c | 115.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bd…ae36backed Yes | 21c | 114$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 18c | 112.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 11c | 99.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 34c | 95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 93.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a65…ef56backed Yes | 23c | 91.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 15c | 91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bd…a84fbacked Yes | 22c | 90.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 38c | 85.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 84.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 82.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes | 19c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 16c | 77.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 75c | 76.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 76.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 66c | 74.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 74.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 33c | 72.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 66.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 61.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…e877backed Yes | 38c | 61.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 60.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 36c | 59.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…3e6ebacked Yes | 22c | 58.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed Yes | 35c | 57.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 35c | 56.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 55.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 53.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…325cbacked Yes | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 52.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 39c | 51.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…af82backed Yes | 30c | 50.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 50.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…befdbacked Yes | 35c | 50.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f22…db25backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…e91ebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked Yes | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 26c | 46.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…2321backed Yes | 32c | 43.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 65c | 40.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 39.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 35c | 35.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 35.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 66c | 35.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 34.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 32.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.