TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,307

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,425 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes53c4,193$2,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.0145130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes10c2,781$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,515.32,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes32c2,623$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.5231043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes24c2,340$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.471,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked No72c2,283$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.729458.5%55 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda33…daccbacked No59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5905834.5%20 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes19c635.14$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.4856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No23c617.92$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6254234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No75c615.2$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.542,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No29c600.62$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.126,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa953…da6dbacked No46c560.89$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.822065%13 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes36c542.75$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.2916724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No74c509.9$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.444,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No7c477.02$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2710432.7%34 W · 70 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes26c459.95$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.971,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c418.3$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.255,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No73c400$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29229345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes16c390.97$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.042437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No56c382.25$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.164,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No10c335.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.73,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No40c322.26$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.481,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x340c…f130backed Yes51c300.48$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.966637.9%25 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ead…0b4dbacked No14c284.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404922.4%11 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No52c279.95$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No19c269.21$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.448,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes44c256.92$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.6823429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c222.21$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No52c217.18$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.451,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes23c214.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.5234533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No18c208$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.915,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No50c205.65$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.821,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes22c203.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.4124432.8%80 W · 164 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a65…ef56backed Yes28c202.8$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.21633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+42.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes17c199.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.991,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfa7…3fcebacked No50c189.08$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.671421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes22c185.29$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.82737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c182.58$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x998a…745bbacked No42c181.52$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.514252.1%74 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No36c166.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.32,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No75c151.32$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.663,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c16…d262backed No52c151.13$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.977757.1%44 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes20c150$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No51c148.27$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.692,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No70c139.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.991,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes25c137.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.286237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c137$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.323,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes71c137$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.734,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No20c130$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.921,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No73c126.07$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes17c125.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5465934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No72c125.59$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0694552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No72c125.5$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes32c123.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+56%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No75c119.78$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.547,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No75c116.23$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.294,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No37c108.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.222,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e19…002ebacked No75c107.9$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked Yes17c104.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.258749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.514161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb139…29a1backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205046%23 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No58c96.54$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.632,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No76c94.56$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9889951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No63c93.77$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.222,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No79c93.23$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes20c91$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.921,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes25c90.58$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.31,27534%433 W · 842 L+46.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes41c87$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3316543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes28c86.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0213838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1da4…e65cbacked No15c85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0713050.8%66 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No58c80.26$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2116550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No79c80$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3444465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes22c79.36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c78.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.99,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No33c74.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.542,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No71c71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4115666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc8…7b89backed No65c69.93$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.792556%14 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.679425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes78c59.61$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.855158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes21c59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes29c57.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0780130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No80c55$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4461760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No54c55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.889661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…97cabacked No76c55$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No75c53.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0123666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed No74c53.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4414744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No63c52.77$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.292,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No75c52.41$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No45c51.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.422,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1016936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes69c49.97$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6322335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No77c49.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.11,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No74c45.34$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.619737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed No72c44.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8419947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No42c43.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.242,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No57c42.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.112,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes31c40.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2218038.9%70 W · 110 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No77c40.11$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9827852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No57c39.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.721,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.