Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaeebfd0ac37130310f64b6337df9fa1e208e6f5a947cf115e84072214d3bd01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 32c | 1,117$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.29 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 34c | 697.64$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.86 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 604.1$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.93 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 499$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 434.67$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 417.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 397.73$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 384.51$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.23 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 33c | 359.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.94 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 341.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.61 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 45c | 293.19$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 239.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 234.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 230.3$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.87 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 78c | 212.44$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 209.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 79c | 207.21$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 196.85$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 189$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 185.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 172.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 44c | 169.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 38c | 167.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 151.18$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 140.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 140.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 30c | 136.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 77c | 133.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 72c | 132.78$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 34c | 119.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 117.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 117.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 62c | 108$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 69c | 105$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d34…4f61backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2312…8ae7backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 87.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 86.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 74c | 86.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 71c | 81.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 14c | 81.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 77c | 77.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 75.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 66c | 74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 34c | 69.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…835ebacked Yes | 29c | 69.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 53c | 65.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 65.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…5cf7backed Yes | 30c | 65.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 64.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 58.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 20c | 54.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 49.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 47.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 73c | 46.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 44.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 39.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…7e81backed No | 27c | 37.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14bd…8f71backed Yes | 54c | 32.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 51c | 32.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 34c | 31.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 70c | 28.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 27.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…657bbacked Yes | 65c | 25.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 24.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 65c | 24.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 73c | 22.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed No | 66c | 21.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…abf0backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 69c | 19.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 66c | 18.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 16.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.