Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f5cc3a2f1e46fd6bfd8fe0024ad375ee12fc5679fda5b2052fcf5f164d90b20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 16c | 402.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 271.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 236$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 107$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 99.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14bd…8f71backed Yes | 27c | 84.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 23c | 83.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 75.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…835ebacked Yes | 27c | 74.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 70.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 79c | 63.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 29c | 51.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 50.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 49.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 27.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 24.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 75c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 16.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.