World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x290aa4b0f8a0d350eca48f5b97c79509f368122c37f531e8397d0cbd6e116feb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 1,397$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.93 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 43c | 1,245$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.87 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 1,069$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.85 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 486.56$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.19 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 458.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.95 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 456.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.82 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 49c | 440.87$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.29 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 398.65$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.65 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 374.62$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.95 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 48c | 365.75$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.37 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 354.63$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.44 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 333.47$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 23c | 328$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.67 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 48c | 299.92$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.96 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 294.46$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.45 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 38c | 290.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.93 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 286.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.57 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 257.95$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 45c | 239.32$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.87 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 65c | 239.1$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.57 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 46c | 236.88$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.89 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 46c | 235.27$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 231.14$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.56 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 231$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 58c | 215.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 213$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 212.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 43c | 210.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 202.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.28 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 37c | 198.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 30c | 180.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 66c | 176.94$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 175.84$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 55c | 175$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 173.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 170.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 47c | 169.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.23 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 42c | 163.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 47c | 162.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 160.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 159.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 158.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 158.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 37c | 150.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.36 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 29c | 139.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 135.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 39c | 133.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 133.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 126.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 124.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 43c | 122.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 47c | 122$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…f00bbacked Yes | 50c | 115.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 110.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 54c | 110$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 108.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 105.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…88e0backed Yes | 38c | 105.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 105$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…ae5dbacked Yes | 57c | 103.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 43c | 97.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 45c | 97.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -71%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 43c | 97.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 41c | 94.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 94.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 32c | 89.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 32c | 89.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 64c | 88.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 15 | 100%15 W · 0 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 57c | 88.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 40c | 87.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 37c | 85.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0da8…54afbacked Yes | 46c | 84.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 84.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 59c | 84.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed No | 53c | 83.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 80.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 79.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Yes | 66c | 79.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 76.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 44c | 72.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 69.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 36c | 66.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 44c | 65.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 39c | 64.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 46c | 59.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 68c | 57.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 21c | 57.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 53.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.