TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,226
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,226 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes39c1,397$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.9323723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes43c1,245$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.877623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c1,069$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.8532748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No65c486.56$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.1912055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes9c458.48$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.9510414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes18c456.02$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.8212816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes49c440.87$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.295052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c398.65$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.6588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No49c374.62$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9522355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes48c365.75$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.3711636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No56c354.63$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4414959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No36c333.47$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3940648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes23c328$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.675837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed No48c299.92$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.965131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No45c294.46$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4521844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes38c290.97$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.933030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes38c286.62$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.5739231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No58c257.95$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4623551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes45c239.32$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.872626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No65c239.1$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.575446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes46c236.88$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.8910629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No46c235.27$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.833053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c231.14$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5623459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No56c231$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7712640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed No58c215.98$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.891816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No65c213$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2428558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes47c212.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.044748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes43c210.41$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.23580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+75.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes8c202.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.2814521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes42c200$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.529337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes37c198.87$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.141145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No30c180.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.884566.7%30 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No66c176.94$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.485072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c175.84$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3534354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.445341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0335…6ecabacked Yes55c175$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No56c173.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.393240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No42c170.02$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4821854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes47c169.96$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.234129.3%12 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked No42c163.06$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.731421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick47cpaid-59%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No47c162.64$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.214355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c160.09$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7932354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No61c159.72$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0136055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No55c158.93$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4827143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No62c158.39$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.965054%27 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes37c150.75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.364827.1%13 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes29c139.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.573360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No57c135.16$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4213646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes39c133.97$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4913357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No50c133.18$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8313155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c126.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8644138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes53c124.9$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5223044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes43c122.58$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7018342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked No47c122$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.522832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-36.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No60c120$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.45945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd8…f00bbacked Yes50c115.73$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No40c110.53$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1414445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes54c110$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4511045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No47c108.32$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.548856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No66c105.72$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7032639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2c…88e0backed Yes38c105.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c105$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1239952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd879…ae5dbacked Yes57c103.45$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.491485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.0wins+0.28per pick57cpaid+50.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No43c97.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.091338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No45c97.82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.02922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick50cpaid-71%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No43c97.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.821752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes41c94.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.738844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No39c94.4$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.111,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes32c89.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0111053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes32c89.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.422466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6011…b31ebacked Yes64c88.73$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0715100%15 W · 0 L+4.8wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+63.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd071…92ccbacked Yes57c88.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes40c87.41$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3416934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes37c85.28$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.132857.1%16 W · 12 L+6.8wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+106.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0da8…54afbacked Yes46c84.93$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No45c84.75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2618348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92eb…9668backed Yes59c84.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.583100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0c9…eac8backed No53c83.18$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.05837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No60c80.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.414454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes58c80$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2517345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No59c79.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d15…4a14backed Yes66c79.55$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.34333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No58c76.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1815766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes44c72.2$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.26955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e6…6423backed Yes57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.184045%18 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes34c70$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3116738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c69.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8552850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No65c67$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6526355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes36c66.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes44c65.22$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.244831.3%15 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.710320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbada…d874backed No39c64.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.29650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes33c60.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.094269%29 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.811839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes46c59.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.134951%25 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No68c57.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.151770.6%12 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes21c57.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.12161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+64.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No49c53.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9215056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.