World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3797bd4c0fcffa75465081df2ff1b5a298150fa167dd929f7b5f19602f8cf83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,757$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 71c | 1,383$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.71 | 15 | 100%15 W · 0 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 1,130$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.9 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 21c | 969.09$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.25 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 31c | 688.33$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.71 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 665.09$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.73 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 28c | 556.24$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 460.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 76c | 434.16$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.31 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 7c | 427.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 406.72$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.53 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 27c | 405.26$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 402.72$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.27 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 402.43$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 41c | 383.11$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.54 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 6c | 285.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.96 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 278.69$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 6c | 271$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 260$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed No | 77c | 248.74$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 44c | 248.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 45c | 246.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.71 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 240.46$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 230.37$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 62c | 225.64$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 30c | 204.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.42 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 203$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 49c | 186.63$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 184.59$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 77c | 184.53$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 66cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 181.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 60c | 179.25$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed No | 78c | 169.96$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 18c | 168.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 163.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 161.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 159$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 156.94$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 62c | 152.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 40c | 151.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 38c | 144.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 19c | 142.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 16c | 134.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 134.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 55c | 130$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 21c | 127.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 58c | 123$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 72c | 119.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 38c | 117.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 115.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 108.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Yes | 25c | 105.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 104.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…f00bbacked Yes | 45c | 103.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 19c | 99.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 22c | 89.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 17c | 86.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 51c | 85.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…28a3backed No | 61c | 82.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 81.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 23c | 81.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 79.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 24c | 79.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 76.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 55c | 75.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 21c | 72.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 52c | 68.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 34c | 65.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 23c | 65.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 75c | 62.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…ae5dbacked Yes | 69c | 61.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 50c | 60.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 26c | 59.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 24c | 55.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Yes | 31c | 52.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 52.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 21c | 51.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed No | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…68a4backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 58c | 49.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 46.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 42c | 40.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 52c | 37.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 75c | 36.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.