TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,925
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,925 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes21c1,757$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3657623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6011…b31ebacked No71c1,383$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.7115100%15 W · 0 L+4.8wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+63.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes27c1,130$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.923723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes21c969.09$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.256731.3%21 W · 46 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No31c688.33$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.714841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No58c665.09$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.7321844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes28c556.24$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1573321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes14c460.2$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4339231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No76c434.16$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.315957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes7c427.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No49c406.72$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5321854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes27c405.26$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.943225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No65c402.72$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.2722355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No62c402.43$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.814959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes41c383.11$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.545131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3612816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No6c285.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.9610414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No76c278.69$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6123551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked Yes6c271$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes23c260$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.224240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed No77c248.74$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.746955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes44c248.49$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes45c246.65$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.711816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No79c240.46$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4532354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No61c230.37$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.5152850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No62c225.64$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.53240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No30c204.04$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.426346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes37c203$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2510629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes23c199.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes49c186.63$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3413357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No79c184.59$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.788743.7%38 W · 49 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No77c184.53$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.661190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick66cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No57c181.61$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3744428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No60c179.25$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.884652.2%24 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2a3…09b8backed No78c169.96$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.022458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes18c168.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.611145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes48c163.97$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2912640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes17c161.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6846330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes14c159$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6715036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c156.94$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6540648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked No62c152.48$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.895251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes40c151.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.143030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.57450%37 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes38c144.18$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2116934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes19c142.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.361520%3 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No58c140$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5928558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes16c134.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5514351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c134.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.751,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes55c130$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0311053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes21c127.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.821747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x070f…e902backed No58c123$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.261421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2837…fd84backed No72c119.45$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick72cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes38c117.54$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.97353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No51c115.74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.915954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes44c110$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6223044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes42c108.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6726632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf7…c485backed Yes25c105.44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes18c104.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.635843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bd8…f00bbacked Yes45c103.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36a2…b8fabacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.23666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d34…cd67backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked No65c99.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes19c99.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3214521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No22c89.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.453360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+48.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes17c86.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.873212.5%4 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-82.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes51c85.83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.764645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2693…28a3backed No61c82.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.473100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No78c81.76$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.995855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes23c81.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.14827.1%13 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed No65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.42777.8%21 W · 6 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+40.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No78c79.8$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.818158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb45a…f218backed Yes24c79.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.01728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No80c76.25$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4215766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No55c75.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.24259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes21c72.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.231822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No52c68.27$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.512470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes34c65.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.594831.3%15 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes23c65.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0518342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes75c62.76$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.791662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd879…ae5dbacked Yes69c61.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.241485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.0wins+0.28per pick57cpaid+50.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes50c60.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.235837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes78c60$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.811636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes26c59.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9efe…6357backed Yes24c55.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d15…4a14backed Yes31c52.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No52c52.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0914445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ac…cae8backed Yes21c51.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd63a…90a6backed No63c51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.09887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+36%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d3e…68a4backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.15875.9%44 W · 14 L+7.8wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes58c49.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.47742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick71cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No76c46.18$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.048856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No71c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9512055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No42c40.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6416051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0066…20a1backed No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.23100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103183.9%26 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x282c…ddeabacked Yes42c38.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No52c37.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.014355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No75c36.64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.168959.6%53 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.