World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95ba4a69ad98c0a2f2cb767e21096683e86fed2288e8b6fb3dc331e5e0ebcd06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 780.56$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.52 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 703.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 10c | 562.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 8c | 364.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 326.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 302.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 277.95$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 262.06$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 7c | 223.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 10c | 217.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 216.04$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed Yes | 22c | 214.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -71%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 5c | 204.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 63c | 201.52$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 175.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 6c | 175$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 166.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 158.39$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 8c | 150.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 149.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed No | 72c | 130.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 12c | 112.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 26c | 106.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…6750backed Yes | 37c | 104.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 22c | 96.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 28c | 96.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 92.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 21c | 84.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 84.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 77c | 79.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 76.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 64.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 27c | 63.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 63.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 62.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…b1febacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 47.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 45.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 39.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 33c | 38.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 32c | 36.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 35.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 31c | 32.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed No | 77c | 29.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…b192backed No | 79c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 63c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.