Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafa4756911816763c62a4509d687ed90ca20aa4987da3b938e162b559db06b88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 17c | 2,302$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.59 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 904.23$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 18c | 832.21$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.33 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 817.37$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.76 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 23c | 799.96$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.88 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 676.68$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 19c | 670.95$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 656.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 20c | 644.27$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 78c | 640.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.02 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 22c | 595.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.58 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 23c | 588$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 461.79$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.93 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 14c | 410.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 381.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 375.01$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 361.11$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 359.73$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 352.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 348.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 325.87$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 281.42$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 9c | 262.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 21c | 249.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 224.59$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 200.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 18c | 191.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 164.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 12c | 164.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 12c | 161.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 161.12$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 20c | 160.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 19c | 158.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 15c | 158.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 18c | 156.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 12c | 147.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 146.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 74c | 143.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…3ae9backed No | 70c | 142.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 18c | 138.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 135.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 127.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 20c | 127.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 23c | 122.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked Yes | 18c | 119.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 21c | 118$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 114.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 114.61$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 105.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 19c | 102.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…155fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 80c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 17c | 99.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 93.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 19c | 93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 12c | 92.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 91.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 17c | 89.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 87.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 86.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 25c | 79.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 78c | 77.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…5123backed Yes | 16c | 72.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f5…6d8dbacked Yes | 22c | 72.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Yes | 28c | 70.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes | 16c | 69.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 27c | 68.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 62.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Yes | 25c | 62.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 23c | 62.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 80c | 60.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 25c | 59.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da8…54afbacked Yes | 21c | 57.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 22c | 54.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Yes | 20c | 54.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 21c | 51.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 47.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 29c | 47.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 77c | 47.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 45.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 42.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 41.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 27c | 40.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.