TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,128 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x302c…abcebacked Yes17c2,302$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.5916724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No78c904.23$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.022,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes18c832.21$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3316733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes20c817.37$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.761,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes23c799.96$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.8839427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes17c676.68$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.898,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes19c670.95$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0125135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes7c656.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.392,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes20c644.27$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3834533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe241…5b42backed No78c640.99$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.028756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes22c595.4$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5845130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes23c588$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3216552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No77c461.79$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.932,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes14c410.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9527047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes24c381.17$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c375.01$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.725,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c361.11$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.824,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No78c359.73$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.264,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes16c352.07$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.699,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes24c348.2$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.441,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No77c325.87$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.21,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No79c281.42$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.94,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes9c262.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes21c249.54$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2815040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No79c224.59$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes23c200.12$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.994,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.492347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes18c191.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.271,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes22c164.54$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.661,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes12c164.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7137…0c12backed Yes12c161.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207417.6%13 W · 61 L+0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No75c161.12$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.592,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…5f93backed Yes20c160.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.814621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes19c158.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.287234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes15c158.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1229732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes18c156.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6413430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes12c147.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1725839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes11c146.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.491,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No74c143.88$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6117759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd18a…3ae9backed No70c142.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.61540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No77c140$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.56,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes18c138.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0127335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No74c135.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.251,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c127.2$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes20c127.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3685330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes23c122.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d62…144dbacked Yes18c119.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.536026.7%16 W · 44 L-19.6wins-0.33per pick59cpaid-61%equal weight24-0.23 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes21c118$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.429238%35 W · 57 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c114.95$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.12,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No79c114.61$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No77c110$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.043,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes32c105.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes19c102.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7142849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023060.9%140 W · 90 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb73…155fbacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No80c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes17c99.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9916437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No78c93.08$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.442,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes19c93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.061,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes12c92.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.524734%16 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No74c91.47$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.562,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes25c90$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.753,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes14c90$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.97540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes17c89.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No79c87.77$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.161,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No75c86.9$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.63432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5238…be0dbacked Yes25c79.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992347.8%11 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No78c77.1$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes24c75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd03b…5123backed Yes16c72.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.931030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f5…6d8dbacked Yes22c72.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1660%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes28c70.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes16c69.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.372020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9efe…6357backed Yes27c68.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.252343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c62.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.727,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf7…c485backed Yes25c62.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8350%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes23c62.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6124841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No80c60.6$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1227852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2556048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1314332.2%46 W · 97 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+81.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed Yes26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.634457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes25c59.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.830919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0da8…54afbacked Yes21c57.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.891040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked Yes27c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.858845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No79c55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5937465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes22c54.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.147239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d15…4a14backed Yes20c54.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.041650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed Yes21c51.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0219260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No77c48$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.961,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No76c47.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed Yes29c47.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7751156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e3…9208backed No77c47.2$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.082347.8%11 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick66cpaid-27.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes25c47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6512927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No75c45.19$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.193,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No79c42.71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9781558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No73c41.85$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.222,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes27c40.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1138454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.449675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.