Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ae6030dbfe5e7de83ced806e8461ff079d9c64bf47e8d963263796c84564f77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 8c | 1,474$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.9 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 3c | 1,204$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 14c | 848.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2308…6c79backed Yes | 9c | 822$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 649.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 551.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 11c | 471.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 3c | 387.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed Yes | 6c | 376.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 7c | 316$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 311.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…7344backed Yes | 5c | 283.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…714bbacked Yes | 4c | 281.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 9c | 274.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 7c | 270.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b84…a108backed Yes | 5c | 261.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 242.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 4c | 234.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed Yes | 10c | 231.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 223.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 13c | 201.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 200.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 9c | 180.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 8c | 170.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 6c | 166.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 12c | 146.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 10c | 116.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 11c | 96.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.