Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe8d9c056c0ba4e3dd092c566db24b8dec3b76f3864fc60325274b4b717d8e47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 42c | 1,710$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 1,272$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 1,249$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.27 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 22c | 1,163$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.71 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 29c | 1,163$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.96 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 8c | 895.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 26c | 852.89$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.52 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 848.99$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 726$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…adb9backed Yes | 31c | 642.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 518.9$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.27 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 31c | 467.27$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 439.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 38c | 415.43$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.48 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 40c | 406.42$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.89 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 404.41$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 79c | 382.15$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes | 17c | 357.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 71c | 335.23$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 326$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 325.87$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 31c | 319.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 23c | 300.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 75c | 280$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 19c | 264.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 26c | 260$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 255.69$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 41c | 255.03$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 57c | 250.68$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 249.32$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 247.58$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked No | 75c | 238.08$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 15c | 229.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 224.59$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 222.31$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 22c | 204.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 201.45$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 27c | 197.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 79c | 197.01$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 185$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 184$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 17c | 182.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 175$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 24c | 173.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 28c | 170.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…adc5backed No | 73c | 169.33$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 18c | 166.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 164.76$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 156.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 64c | 151.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 150.01$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 147.93$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 145.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 145$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 11c | 144.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked No | 74c | 142.4$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 37c | 141.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 141.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 139.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 21c | 136.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 28c | 135.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 130.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 124.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 24c | 123.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 120.48$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 42c | 120.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 41c | 118.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 118.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 116$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 115.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 25c | 111.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 111$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 24c | 108.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed Yes | 19c | 107.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 37c | 105.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 18c | 104.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 16c | 103.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 65c | 95.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 94.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x697b…ef50backed Yes | 57c | 93.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 20c | 86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 70c | 85.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 24c | 83.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 12c | 83.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 83.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 82.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 72c | 82.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 34c | 79.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 19c | 77.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 76.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 76.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b334backed Yes | 27c | 75.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 67c | 68.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 75c | 59.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.