Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2abeb331059c77e9d0a77d792c27d160959a60779841b4b051dcc0eba0ccff58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 324.24$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 188.34$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 165.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 148.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 137.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 127.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 113.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 83.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 77.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 74.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 20c | 67.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 76c | 65.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 59.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…5d9bbacked Yes | 24c | 58.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…65a3backed Yes | 25c | 55.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 21c | 53.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 50.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 79c | 45.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 44.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4902…eeb1backed Yes | 28c | 42.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 39.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 67c | 36.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 40c | 32.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 67c | 31.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 25.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 19.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 14.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 79c | 13.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.