Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf615538209b1389f52f71b91d2f83addd5e9e2a5afc011eb70e6a097598cc578
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,629$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 1,157$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 36c | 857.43$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.3 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 715.83$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 573$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 33c | 432.49$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.72 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 425$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 22c | 413.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 29c | 378.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 350$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 69c | 348.2$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.45 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 30c | 340.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 332.66$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 255$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 67c | 253.78$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 217.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 214.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 209.28$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 35c | 200.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 28c | 178.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 175.72$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 174.43$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…88e0backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 156.8$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 141.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 28c | 138.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 134.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 120.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 26c | 117$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 116.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 32c | 114.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 109.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 100.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 89.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 77c | 88.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 25c | 81.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 71c | 79.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 78.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 74.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa333…dc9bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 71.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 71.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 71.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 69.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 28c | 68.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 64.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 28c | 62.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 62.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 26c | 59.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…7381backed Yes | 34c | 58.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 55.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 52.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 21c | 52.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 28c | 51.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 50.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 30c | 49.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 48.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 43.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 34c | 43.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 26c | 41.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 36.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 35.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 70c | 35.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 34.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…2fc2backed No | 70c | 32.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 31.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 31.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d7…618cbacked No | 70c | 30.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 79c | 27.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 70c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 18.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.