Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8d9f846f0a6743c0f445dcabb46cb8808cabb9217274a5771c9bcf9d7d0fb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 1,102$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 57c | 733.32$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.44 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 687.07$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 504.86$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 44c | 449.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.63 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 433.37$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 54c | 417.89$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.43 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 64c | 271.7$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 30c | 267$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 50c | 257.1$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.08 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 45c | 220.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.08 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 210$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 39c | 201.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.88 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 32c | 200.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 51c | 199$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 48c | 187.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 167.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 60c | 166.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 22c | 159.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 145.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 139.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 133.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 132.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 131.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 63c | 130.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 56c | 121$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 43c | 116$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 49c | 116$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 46c | 113.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 105.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 46c | 100.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 96.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 49c | 95.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 94.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 57c | 93.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 91.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 82.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 82.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0f4dbacked Yes | 38c | 81.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 49c | 77.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 40c | 69.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 46c | 65.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 45c | 52.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 45c | 52.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 55c | 51.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 51.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 51c | 51.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 50.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 51c | 50.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa333…dc9bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 51c | 42.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 40c | 41.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 40.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 50c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 54c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 80c | 37.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 54c | 37.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 36.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 50c | 36.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 47c | 35.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d50…e29fbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 31.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 45c | 31.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 29.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 37c | 28.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 63c | 28.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 25.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 24.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 24.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 23.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 49c | 23.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 68c | 21.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 63c | 17.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 60c | 17.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.