Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacb77ea92af52a026916d3505980f4fe58aaa8ce366faa8be53c6a53236fe87b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 1,659$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 1,469$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 29c | 1,201$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.14 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 79c | 1,032$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.65 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 7c | 563.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 41c | 497.05$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.2 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 476.31$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 314.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 285.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 269.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 58c | 250.78$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.33 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 44c | 227.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 204.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 18c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 39c | 174.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 162.06$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 62c | 161.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 140.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 74c | 139.84$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 13c | 134.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 111.71$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 14c | 110.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 109.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 27c | 109$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 100.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 30c | 98.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 97.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 89.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 88.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 83.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 40c | 83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 23c | 81.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 78.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 76.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 63c | 69.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 58.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 36c | 53.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 52.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…68ffbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 42c | 47.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 38c | 44.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 29c | 41.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 26c | 39.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 28c | 36.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 31c | 35.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…ea1bbacked No | 71c | 30.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 30.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 30.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 78c | 22.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 20.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 77c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.