Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45873c7511062f7b88670653c8d29d4ce49ce923bab01177a8083df8a41ba666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 47c | 2,518$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,200$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.19 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 34c | 1,141$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,086$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.73 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 56c | 676$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.66 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 48c | 595.29$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.53 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 70c | 554.06$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.84 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 54c | 499.99$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.89 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 79c | 456.22$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 47c | 379.69$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.1 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 350$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 53c | 337.43$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 44c | 333.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.41 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 61c | 323.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.74 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 321.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 265.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…3307backed Yes | 55c | 255.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 230.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041a…656dbacked Yes | 75c | 218.88$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes | 77c | 195.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 166$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 55c | 164.82$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 23c | 162.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 162.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 146.32$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 140.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…b2a6backed Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 60c | 136.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 54c | 134.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 54c | 131.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 55c | 130.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 32c | 126.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 122.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 51c | 118.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 37c | 111.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 52c | 109$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 54c | 106.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 13c | 106.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 103$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 18c | 100.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 100.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…1f46backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691d…599fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 46c | 99.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 33c | 97.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 44c | 97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 46c | 91.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 15c | 87.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 46c | 87.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 60c | 85.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 40c | 83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 82.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 41c | 81.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 44c | 78.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 72c | 78.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 76.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 40c | 73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 72.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 53c | 67.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 40c | 65.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…6479backed No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 49c | 63.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 33c | 62.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 59c | 59.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 57.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 56.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 42c | 56.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 44c | 54.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 53.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 52.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 56c | 52.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 21c | 49.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked Yes | 53c | 48.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 47c | 45.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4d…77febacked No | 48c | 44.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 59c | 43.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 59c | 43.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 39c | 43.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 48c | 43.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 46c | 42.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…33ddbacked Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 46c | 37.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 47c | 37.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.