Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc217fcf17d865349a1c5734c03b2a69c555a732d8e4b05dcb72d4cb5f7d17371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 29c | 1,124$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.42 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 891.45$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 23c | 844.3$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.2 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 70c | 838.84$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.31 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 23c | 489.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 80c | 387.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 378.8$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 38c | 361.18$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.98 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 340.89$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.43 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 26c | 337.45$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 324.63$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 305.86$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.27 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 68c | 281.85$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 276.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 261.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 259.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 251.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 244.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 239.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 25c | 229.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 183.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 43c | 183.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 37c | 176.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 175.74$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 25c | 167.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.42 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 67c | 167.92$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 29c | 165.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 30c | 157.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 156.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 23c | 150.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 141.48$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 69c | 139.09$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 138.59$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 12c | 135.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 128.62$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 13c | 126.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 121.94$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 18c | 120.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 43c | 116.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 24c | 114.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 76c | 102.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed Yes | 33c | 94.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 93.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 24c | 81.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 66c | 76.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 76.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 75.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 75.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 73.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 71.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 79c | 71.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 71.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked No | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 66.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 65.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 71c | 60.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 25c | 58.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 25c | 57.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 25c | 57.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…234ebacked Yes | 23c | 55.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 55.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 48.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 47.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed No | 69c | 45.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 26c | 42.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 49c | 40.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 38.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 37.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 54c | 35.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 69c | 35.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 35.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 34.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 61c | 34.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 34.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 66c | 33.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 52c | 30.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…c1b5backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 45c | 28.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.