Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13fd301e996e352cdaba04da0a32a6fd260fbdee2d08bac6774177d2770e5541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 1,210$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 22c | 449.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 336.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 300.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 262.96$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 240.61$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 222.8$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 196.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 27c | 160.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 159.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 156.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 23c | 139.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 127.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 15c | 124.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 120.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 113.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 11c | 110.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 69c | 106.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 25c | 106.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 24c | 103.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 76c | 90.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 89.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 86.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 16c | 84.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 15c | 81.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 75.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 71.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 71.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 70.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 78c | 69.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 57.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 23c | 56.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 55.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 53.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 30c | 49.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 44.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 44.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 40.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 74c | 36.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 72c | 36.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 32.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 32.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 31.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 28.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed No | 77c | 26.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 76c | 25.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 24.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 76c | 16.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 79c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.