Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b8f8447c5c1dca7ed8054418fd425383f26ee5e3bb17e5862221d324c37ffb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 1,010$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.22 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 44c | 887.3$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.22 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…4fe3backed Yes | 43c | 504.72$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 361.18$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 356.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 350$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 340.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 5c | 311.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 6c | 308.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 45c | 230.89$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 46c | 229.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 214$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 208.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 49c | 198.93$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 68c | 196.39$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 186.8$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 183.88$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 139.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 137.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 135.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 135.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 127$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 59c | 126.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 120.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 44c | 119.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 20c | 105.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 52c | 102.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 96.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 95.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 92.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 20c | 91.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 90.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 26c | 90.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 49c | 89.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 88.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 87.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…2bb3backed No | 53c | 85.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 58c | 84.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 75.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 74.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 71.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 43c | 69.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 39c | 63.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed No | 47c | 61.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 58.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 54.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 52.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed No | 48c | 51.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 38c | 49.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Yes | 44c | 45.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 44.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…e57bbacked Yes | 39c | 42.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed No | 48c | 41.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes | 45c | 41.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…a460backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 36c | 39.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 39.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 38.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 38.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…eb51backed No | 51c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 56c | 35.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 43c | 34.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 34.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 49c | 33.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 31.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed No | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 29.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed Yes | 42c | 29.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 42c | 28.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 49c | 28.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 49c | 25.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 24.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 24.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 56c | 20.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 66c | 15.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 79c | 13.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.