Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ac139b7c68ed4917f4eea006e3f5a2a1bc1b6dfae68c390545baebef7818900
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 35c | 1,779$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 37c | 1,181$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.11 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 997.4$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 899.65$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 849.05$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 53c | 511.36$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.79 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…0e64backed Yes | 44c | 439.05$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 35c | 373.42$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 345.48$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.81 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 61c | 337.16$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.73 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 42c | 330$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.01 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 44c | 310.08$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 42c | 305.97$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.51 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 300.27$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 291.55$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 263.56$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 36c | 233.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 215.4$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 37c | 204.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 200.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 194.86$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 67c | 178.04$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 177.84$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 34c | 173$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 44c | 172$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 164.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…27ddbacked Yes | 35c | 155$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 67c | 149.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 149.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…28a3backed No | 67c | 148.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 43c | 139.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 134.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 133.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 44c | 126.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 36c | 124.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 121.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 60c | 117$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 37c | 110.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 36c | 109.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 37c | 106.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 103.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 45c | 102.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 62c | 94.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 93.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 60c | 92.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Yes | 39c | 91.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 35c | 90.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 88.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 37c | 87.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 36c | 87.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 35c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 38c | 79.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…e1d0backed Yes | 34c | 74.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 74.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 70c | 71.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 34c | 70.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 38c | 69.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 67.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 66.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 63c | 63.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 60c | 62.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 25c | 61.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…fdf7backed Yes | 38c | 60.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 58.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 61c | 57.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 56.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Yes | 36c | 56.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked Yes | 36c | 54.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 50.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 32c | 46.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 40c | 45.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 36c | 45.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 45.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 75c | 44.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 44.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 42.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 41.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 37c | 40.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed Yes | 36c | 40.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 32c | 39.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 34c | 39.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 38.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.