Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea50f6b5dbaae35f98748472298f7ea4cd9de8b6a502fb6f485818a4b2302e07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 54c | 1,324$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.05 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 863.76$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.76 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 48c | 570.59$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.24 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 32c | 507.25$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.7 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 463.58$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.27 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 403.06$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 42c | 379.63$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.52 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 330.03$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.74 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 36c | 323.94$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.43 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 297$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 281.4$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 67c | 266.63$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.42 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 247.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 39c | 246.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.67 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 242$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 215.39$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 211.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 195.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 188$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 45c | 182.22$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 181.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 32c | 180.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 49c | 180.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 179.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 175.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 158$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 139.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 43c | 134.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 131.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 31c | 128.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.81 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 54c | 124.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 118.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 118$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 55c | 107.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 105.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebb…593dbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 46c | 98.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 93.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 32c | 88.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 86.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 47c | 85.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 83.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 61c | 77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed No | 41c | 75.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 58c | 67.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 64.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 63.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 56c | 62.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 68c | 60.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 61c | 58.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 52c | 57.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed No | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 55c | 56.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 55.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 45c | 53.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 63c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 59c | 52.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 45c | 52.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 40c | 50.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 54c | 45.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 44.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 42c | 42.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 46c | 42.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 55c | 41.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 49c | 40.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 42c | 40.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 38.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 45c | 37.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 37.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 43c | 37.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked No | 53c | 36.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 35.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 69c | 34.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…4183backed No | 45c | 33.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 33.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Yes | 39c | 33.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 33.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 43c | 32.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…0cc3backed Yes | 40c | 31.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 31.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 30.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 48c | 30.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.