Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcb87481cc93dee1d7b8027b60e4b89b5bc3bd18ccd051dcc962b02ccbdd161c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 4,318$3,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,353.63 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 1,123$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 827.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.87 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 595.84$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 25c | 573.45$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.1 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 394.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.84 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 301.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 30c | 271.08$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.53 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb7…4eaebacked Yes | 32c | 239$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked Yes | 31c | 217.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.83 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 27c | 212.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.1 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 28c | 203$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.62 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 26c | 192.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.48 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 40c | 185.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.53 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 26c | 161$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 10c | 156.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 75c | 143.04$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 23c | 142.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 136.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 39c | 131$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 121$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 20c | 116.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 115$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 111.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 109.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes | 31c | 106.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 106.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 67c | 99.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 93.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 48c | 82.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 81.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 77.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 30c | 77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 59c | 74.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 69.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 60c | 67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 41c | 60.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 51c | 58.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 58.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 40c | 55.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 48.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 26c | 47.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 33c | 45.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 43.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 25c | 43.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x073d…b94bbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe845…f5abbacked No | 51c | 39.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 73c | 38.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 27c | 38.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 28c | 37.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 31c | 35.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 33c | 34.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 34.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…0657backed Yes | 33c | 33.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 29.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 72c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdef8…3b22backed Yes | 62c | 20.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 69c | 14.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.