Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3ebab9baa44393114b4cca421d7b34212f65906be8bb7853a7e70d45bd32201
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 7,500$5,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.96 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 4,065$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,764$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.58 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 23c | 579.23$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 20c | 360$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 358.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 334.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 28c | 293.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 289.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 286.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 267$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 261.23$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 30c | 226.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 195.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 175.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…388cbacked No | 70c | 171$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 30c | 166.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 161.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 35c | 150.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 24c | 135.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 132.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed Yes | 39c | 131.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 127.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 21c | 112.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 109.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 98.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes | 36c | 95.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4d…77febacked Yes | 20c | 91.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 21c | 86.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 18c | 85.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed Yes | 22c | 80.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 23c | 79.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 20c | 78.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 70.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 20c | 70.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 20c | 68.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 68.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 25c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c0…1edebacked Yes | 30c | 66.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…088bbacked Yes | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 51.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 30c | 46.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 41c | 37.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 31c | 35.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 31c | 33.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 62c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked Yes | 44c | 29.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 74c | 28.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 79c | 24.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…4d78backed No | 71c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 17.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…fe21backed No | 78c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…b192backed No | 79c | 14.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 78c | 13.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.