TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,285

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,324 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac22…363ebacked Yes24c1,184$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.4114243.7%62 W · 80 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes28c1,171$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.7545130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes21c1,077$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.4518041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3002,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes22c905.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.661,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No35c892.72$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.225451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c827.68$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.1410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes24c799.99$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.1139427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cea…e48ebacked No74c780.89$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.37366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked Yes26c769.58$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.2212450.8%63 W · 61 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes38c714.11$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.6216543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No65c704.63$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.732,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c658.3$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes19c524.65$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.8916724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No76c512.6$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.652,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No77c482.75$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.058560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes19c480$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.86533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No73c470.84$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.533,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc9a…1757backed Yes24c460.22$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.782748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes19c458.35$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.372,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes18c440.95$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.041,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c428.99$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.654,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes47c419.26$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5110845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes29c418.98$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.961,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No80c413.31$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.794,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No41c409.58$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.056,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No78c385.24$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.053,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf3…369dbacked No25c358.53$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.593959%23 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No60c350.37$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.051,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No75c345.52$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.4519737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No76c313.98$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.752,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes78c300.17$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.927061.4%43 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes16c299.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.499425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes27c299.77$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.2323129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes58c288.32$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.9257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes31c258.96$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.816,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No21c255.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.444,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes25c228.62$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.5425135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes55c217.5$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.1927079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No40c215.43$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3263323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No51c215.2$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4629953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes16c199.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.9934533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed No80c184.27$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.052853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c5…018bbacked Yes45c184.19$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.864665.2%30 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes68c182.62$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3123429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c169.72$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.524,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes43c160$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8656048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes30c149.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.997540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes22c140.7$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.2865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6217…e76bbacked No75c138.56$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No69c137.41$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6639956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes16c137.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.177234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes25c132.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.071,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No71c130.32$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8883459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes25c126.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.288,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb567…1575backed No80c125.72$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.55560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fdd…2f82backed Yes80c125.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes23c124.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7515040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c121.81$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.233,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c120$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.244,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes29c115.47$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1454143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c114.71$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.082,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes23c110$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.717644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6361…3ec4backed Yes19c107.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.951172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+43.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes29c107.81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.052,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No39c107.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x89f4…6950backed Yes24c106.74$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.762236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes20c101.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.142,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7477555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes17c97.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1346452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…5f93backed Yes22c95.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.494621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes78c94$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4233561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c92$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.823,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc64…2c70backed Yes19c87.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.22429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes29c87.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.392,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No80c87$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.563,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x304f…7d3cbacked No39c86.91$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.164748.9%23 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No65c85.22$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.82,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes31c83.29$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.32,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes26c81.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1238454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes20c79.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8927246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No76c79.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.431,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes36c78.23$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.076927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…b975backed Yes20c73.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.931442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+91%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes16c72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4847239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes28c72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8454735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574f…b919backed Yes17c71.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+473.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No78c69.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6449675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0546…17a9backed No79c67.62$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.424770.2%33 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed Yes30c65.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8123560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c63.85$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.752,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c62.18$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.79,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes20c61.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0510447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No38c61.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.411,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed Yes22c60.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5528455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No75c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No76c60$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.63,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes22c59.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.793,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes19c59.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.