Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd29491b0449afdfd53e77ebcd57b988219d42d55d76ec946977f54de83aa81c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,184$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.41 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,171$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.75 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,077$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.45 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 22c | 905.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.66 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 35c | 892.72$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.22 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 827.68$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 24c | 799.99$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.11 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…e48ebacked No | 74c | 780.89$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 26c | 769.58$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.22 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 38c | 714.11$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.62 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 704.63$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.73 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 658.3$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 19c | 524.65$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.89 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 512.6$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 77c | 482.75$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.05 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 19c | 480$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.8 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 470.84$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed Yes | 24c | 460.22$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.78 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 458.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 440.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.04 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 428.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 47c | 419.26$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.51 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 29c | 418.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.96 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 413.31$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 409.58$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 385.24$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 25c | 358.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 350.37$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.05 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 75c | 345.52$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.45 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 313.98$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.75 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 78c | 300.17$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 16c | 299.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.49 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 27c | 299.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.23 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 58c | 288.32$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.92 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 258.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 255.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 25c | 228.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.54 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 55c | 217.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 40c | 215.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 215.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 80c | 184.27$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.05 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 45c | 184.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.86 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 68c | 182.62$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 169.72$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 30c | 149.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 22c | 140.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.28 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6217…e76bbacked No | 75c | 138.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 69c | 137.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 16c | 137.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.17 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 132.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 130.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 126.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…1575backed No | 80c | 125.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdd…2f82backed Yes | 80c | 125.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 23c | 124.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 121.81$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 29c | 115.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 114.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6361…3ec4backed Yes | 19c | 107.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 29c | 107.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 39c | 107.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed Yes | 24c | 106.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 101.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 17c | 97.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 22c | 95.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…2c70backed Yes | 19c | 87.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 29c | 87.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked No | 39c | 86.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 85.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 31c | 83.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 26c | 81.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 20c | 79.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 79.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 36c | 78.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…b975backed Yes | 20c | 73.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +91%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 16c | 72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 28c | 72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574f…b919backed Yes | 17c | 71.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +473.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 69.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 79c | 67.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 30c | 65.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 63.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 62.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 20c | 61.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 38c | 61.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 22c | 60.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 19c | 59.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.