TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,106
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,106 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No41c8,486$3,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,029.2418041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes61c2,092$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.2756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes53c1,258$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.912,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes42c1,096$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.1839427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes50c753.74$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.0565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd217…7561backed No78c698.08$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.441442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-29.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No56c675.95$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.512,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c647.62$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes61c576.05$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.221,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No49c528.47$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.264,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No54c490.1$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.672,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c470$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.145,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes68c460$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.86533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes61c454.66$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.192,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No57c418.99$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.254,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes52c389.43$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.3910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes22c388.73$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes5c380$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes45c379.69$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.5625135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No49c376.57$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.894,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No49c355.85$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.6363323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No59c350.36$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.851,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes57c342.03$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.575,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No39c327.77$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.154,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x267d…ed00backed Yes63c310.28$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1943444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No54c306.44$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.3256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes49c299.99$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14714233.1%47 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes51c279.25$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.998,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes25c264.3$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.611,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No44c251.59$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0220347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed No44c250$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14012437.1%46 W · 78 L-17.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7b35…bb20backed Yes57c245.08$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.888263.4%52 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes52c240.25$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.996,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes64c233.17$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…63e1backed Yes43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No54c225.44$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.993,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No50c219$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.114,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No48c214.15$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.026,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No40c206.57$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.413,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…d4a6backed Yes49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9685049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.660550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked No48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1049145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9814646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c184.24$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.54,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes31c183.15$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8616532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes56c180$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.418650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes44c178.01$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4919737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No53c169.14$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1739956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed No54c167.12$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.619852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes47c166.81$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c158.78$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.25,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c155.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2fdd…2f82backed Yes65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c151.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.022,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked Yes25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.514034.3%48 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd47c…8ed6backed Yes65c150$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.51241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes22c147.11$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.194,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes52c144.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes43c129.94$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.195349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed Yes57c127.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.569345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No42c116.72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.736150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes19c116.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.761679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No56c116.25$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.732,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes56c115.73$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4438454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes61c115$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.152,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f4…6950backed Yes28c113.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.882236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes29c112.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.263,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c98…727bbacked Yes52c112.35$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.971127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes46c109$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1427047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes35c107.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.287234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7181848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3357948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1028…1316backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb672…a1f1backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5615246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb139…29a1backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205046%23 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35d7…28f8backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5615345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4810147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes48c96.21$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.032,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71cb…6d71backed No41c95.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.531145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes36c94.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No44c93.71$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.960054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No50c92$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.133,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7693…c40fbacked Yes58c90.95$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.921450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes60c90$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8756048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes34c87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7817524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes53c84.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.661,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes25c84.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3512927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No53c82.38$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3127079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x97c5…018bbacked Yes66c76.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504665.2%30 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No44c74.23$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.572,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No43c69.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5757150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No52c68.48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.747,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e44…2c35backed Yes51c67.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.688350.6%42 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No38c66.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes65c66.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.