Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x661130950b92434dd663a00a019ac0468d016f8d54d8168d7d408453c5eb1b2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 26c | 899.98$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.99 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 15c | 865.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 661.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 17c | 500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 24c | 433.87$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 430.58$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 22c | 352.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 350.15$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 72c | 300.49$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 5c | 299.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 283.32$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 19c | 266.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 7c | 263.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 25c | 257.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 250.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 24c | 242.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 235.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 229.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 31c | 220$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 216.46$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 15c | 212.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 23c | 204.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 15c | 204.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 203.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 12c | 195.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 194.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 22c | 194$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 182.64$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 23c | 168.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 29c | 161.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 160.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 158$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 26c | 150.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…8ed6backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 148.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 138.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 128.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 20c | 119.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 109.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 101.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 94.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 78c | 94.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…520fbacked Yes | 26c | 92.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 89.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 72c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 77.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 24c | 73.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 20c | 67.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…2b3bbacked Yes | 22c | 67.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 65.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 63.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 24c | 62.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 59.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 59.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 19c | 57.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 74c | 53.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 19c | 53.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 52.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 51.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897e…7bbdbacked Yes | 21c | 49.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 77c | 47.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 46.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 44.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 42.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 78c | 42.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 41.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 40.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 36.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 32.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc85…1631backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 29.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9b…3351backed No | 71c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 26.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.