Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd901e04e6cf85ab23ea6a79469a66fb9c8f10a86ab1f736519706dfb9cc70192
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 1,457$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.31 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 639.6$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 23c | 442.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 440.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 430.1$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.07 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 17c | 401.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.24 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 23c | 350$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 346.5$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 317.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 23c | 314.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.66 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 8c | 266.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.74 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 250.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 24c | 249.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 246.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 10c | 219.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 68c | 211.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 77c | 180.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.09 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 22c | 174.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 172.13$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 171$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 171$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 163.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 161.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 160.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 159.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 158.64$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed No | 10c | 157.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 153.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.57 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 30c | 153.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.11 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 148.4$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 146.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 146.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 136.77$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 131$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 80c | 130.76$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 77c | 122.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 43c | 107.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 100.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 34c | 99.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 28c | 96.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 17c | 93.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 67c | 92.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 61c | 85.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Yes | 36c | 84.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 26c | 84.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 79.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…01d9backed No | 65c | 77.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 61c | 77.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 36c | 75.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 25c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 71c | 57.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 66c | 55.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 71c | 49.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…e5d7backed Yes | 29c | 49.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 43c | 47.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 37c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 66c | 45.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 25c | 45.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…0cc3backed Yes | 26c | 41.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 32.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 31.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 31.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 79c | 25.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 66c | 25.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed Yes | 79c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 79c | 19.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 59c | 18.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 16.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 15.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.