Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa46e3151691ef6998e92ddda5ba1f4ddc3f29a9b3f73df4d01d8284b70fcea3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 570.5$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…92bfbacked Yes | 24c | 393.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 36c | 380.6$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.16 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 347.88$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 16c | 299.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 275.61$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 33c | 270$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 33c | 240.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ee…11b4backed Yes | 33c | 227.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 197.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 186.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 11c | 182.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 14c | 157.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 19c | 143.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 30c | 136.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 33c | 111.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 29c | 103$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 101.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 100.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 96.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 80c | 92.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 35c | 85.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…18cbbacked Yes | 13c | 84.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 82.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 16c | 77.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 77.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 17c | 77.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 71.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 66.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 37c | 65.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 32c | 61.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 19c | 51.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 29c | 51.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 44.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 64c | 41.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 32c | 31.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 68c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 73c | 20.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 74c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.