Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fb18eed8dc67f1db72787fd3b14fa7d89004f83b38aeabcfde6eef36f3a9bc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 5,493$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,772$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 75c | 1,606$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.08 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…ed32backed Yes | 2c | 812.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +581.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 14c | 771.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 575.52$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 50c | 500.58$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed No | 7c | 445.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 383.77$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 76c | 365.98$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 40 | 97.5%39 W · 1 L | +16.9wins | +0.42per pick | 55cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…eb28backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 49c | 282.04$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.63 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 80c | 250.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 247.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 13c | 243.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 224.65$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 223.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 215.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 214.61$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…8bd5backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 17c | 195.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 55c | 179.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…6aacbacked No | 48c | 179.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 176.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 172.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 50c | 170.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 40c | 146.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 142.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 141.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 135.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 40c | 131.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 55c | 125.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 13c | 124.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 50c | 123.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 25c | 117.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 104.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…5f64backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 17c | 99.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 96.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 95.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 48c | 92.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 37c | 89.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 41c | 89.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 85.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 48c | 81.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 50c | 64.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 21c | 61.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 53c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 42c | 56.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 24c | 55.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 48c | 54.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 54.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 65c | 53.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 46c | 51.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…fb8dbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 47c | 45.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 63c | 43.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 53c | 40.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 45c | 34.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 59c | 33.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 55c | 33.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 63c | 32.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 48c | 31.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 51c | 29.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 50c | 29.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed Yes | 50c | 29.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 55c | 26.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 74c | 26.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked Yes | 50c | 24.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed Yes | 59c | 23.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.