Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Aguilar (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4a34e0e91055f4a0352fe3c5bc3c8c694612cacdc86a00f8101d0196a9ddb24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aguilarof Cilic, Aguilar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f44…93c2backed Aguilar | 77c | 31,802$24,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,351.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Cilic | 22c | 23,208$5,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,214.84 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cilic | 23c | 7,724$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.63 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Aguilar | 77c | 6,152$4,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.67 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…c058backed Aguilar | 78c | 5,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.09 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cilic | 24c | 5,000$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.99 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Cilic | 25c | 2,500$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cilic | 23c | 2,224$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.3 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Cilic | 24c | 2,018$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.39 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Cilic | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Cilic | 22c | 318.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 282 | 55%155 W · 127 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Cilic | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Aguilar | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Cilic | 29c | 155.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Cilic | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Cilic | 25c | 96.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Cilic | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Cilic | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Aguilar | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed Aguilar | 78c | 19.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 120 | 70%84 W · 36 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Aguilar (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin CilicDaniel Merida Aguilar won
- Set 1 Winner: Aguilar vs CilicCilic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.