Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb6dae76488599d4772a36f0a4fdc75fb0e22b55e0d097f8785170cc854e8744
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 2,948$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 8c | 2,894$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.32 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,023$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.48 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 752.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 721.52$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 702.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 22c | 681.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.44 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 24c | 633.58$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.02 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 624.33$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 3c | 623.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 592.97$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 28c | 556.46$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.26 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 551.17$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.39 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 473.83$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 464.77$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 31c | 450.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.63 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 428$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 51c | 394.17$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.11 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 33c | 373.17$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.67 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 59c | 361.43$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.44 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 350.97$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 350.27$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 52c | 310.4$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 47c | 300$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 60c | 299.11$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 15c | 279$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 74c | 269.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 263.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 25c | 258.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 34c | 240.74$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 11c | 234.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 210.35$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 204$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 198.34$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 29c | 196.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 189.58$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 185.02$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 22c | 180$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 11c | 177.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 45c | 170.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 70c | 169.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 70c | 158.3$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 16c | 155.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 71c | 154.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 148.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 132.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…fd8bbacked Yes | 25c | 128.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 123.31$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 57c | 120$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 114.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 64c | 109.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…ca41backed No | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 38c | 104.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 102.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 15c | 101.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 101$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 70c | 100.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 58c | 98.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 92.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 26c | 90.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 89.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 85.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 73c | 72.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 70.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 64.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 37c | 58.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 74c | 58.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 69c | 58.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 45c | 55.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 34c | 52.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 60c | 50.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 67c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 36c | 49.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 26c | 42.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3c…eafbbacked Yes | 58c | 39.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 53c | 37.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…6479backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 36.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed Yes | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…67bbbacked Yes | 43c | 35.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 62c | 32.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 71c | 32.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…cc6cbacked No | 58c | 31.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.