Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bc567cd9499a26362eb42c61a541868fd3224aa19f97eb0f0087d24c45c7c48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 650$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 612.77$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 354.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 339.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 25c | 332.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 16c | 235.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 17c | 226.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 204.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 52c | 194.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 189.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 188.65$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 182.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 24c | 168.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 18c | 164.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 159.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 18c | 129.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 15c | 129.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 37c | 119.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 42c | 112$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 20c | 108.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 103.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 15c | 98.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 15c | 96.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 95.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 21c | 86.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd559…ff47backed No | 76c | 84.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 78.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 21c | 70.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 28c | 69.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 34c | 58.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 78c | 46.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 43.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 26c | 43.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 40.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f70…0f8bbacked No | 80c | 36.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 76c | 32.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 73c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 57c | 23.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 69c | 22.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.