Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x487e9931ca1f5e3bdff65880bc53555d9eab3b9fa4d437d3e762aeea77b5d4db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 1,345$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.81 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 34c | 1,200$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.25 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 1,186$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 1,131$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 64c | 575.32$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.88 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 535.33$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 517$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 493.57$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.1 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 412.22$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 28c | 358.58$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 3c | 354.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 351.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 337.44$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 335.4$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…adb9backed Yes | 34c | 325.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 314.81$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 62c | 260$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.76 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 224.75$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 221.23$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 208$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 14c | 194.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 189.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 157.72$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 149.89$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 140$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…5efcbacked No | 29c | 136.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 70c | 136.48$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 135.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 12c | 126.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 126$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 125.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 121.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 28c | 119.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 32c | 118.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 29c | 115$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 113.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 35c | 112.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 72c | 111.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 34c | 109.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.35 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 28c | 108.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 27c | 108.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 108.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 33c | 107.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 101.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 11c | 94.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 73c | 91.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 85.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 26c | 84.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 28c | 84.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 24c | 79.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 17c | 78.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 29c | 78.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 78.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 72.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 71.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 70.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 69.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 68.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 30c | 65.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…fde9backed Yes | 32c | 63.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…6468backed Yes | 40c | 62.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked Yes | 30c | 60.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 30c | 58.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…2e8fbacked Yes | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 74c | 57.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 67c | 55.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 55.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Yes | 28c | 53.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 27c | 53.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 44c | 53.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 28c | 52.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 47.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 45.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 27c | 44.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 66c | 42.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 27c | 41.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 70c | 39.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…1271backed Yes | 78c | 38.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 27c | 37.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 33c | 36.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 65c | 36.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.