Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa5c209a4859b907645a1af3e2cbc5f5e3a8822014fef58892f48a4da30c18d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 30c | 1,525$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.06 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 22c | 1,518$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.45 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 40c | 1,065$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.87 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 964.68$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 911.66$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 480.75$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.24 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 440.22$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 37c | 439.9$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.41 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 425$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 419.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 415.83$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 30c | 319.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…adb9backed Yes | 19c | 317.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 305.55$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 299.45$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 22c | 273.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 78c | 268.87$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 263.58$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 240.48$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 236$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 235.22$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 11c | 204.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 178.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.07 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 164.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 76c | 163.44$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 161.09$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 62c | 160.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 159.22$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 154.4$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 146.82$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 44c | 142.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 78c | 138.82$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 133.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 79c | 129.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 124.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 121.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…5f64backed Yes | 36c | 121.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 33c | 119$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 107$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 72c | 100.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 50c | 100.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…95b2backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…01d9backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 19c | 99.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 20c | 97.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…88e0backed Yes | 42c | 95.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 89.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 61c | 89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…eb28backed Yes | 35c | 88.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 51c | 87.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 87.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 21c | 82.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 80.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 20c | 80.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 79.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 47c | 74.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 28c | 72.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 80c | 72.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 76c | 72.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 71.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 69.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked Yes | 23c | 68.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 18c | 67.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 19c | 67.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 66.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 38c | 65.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 64.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 17c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 64c | 62.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6361…3ec4backed Yes | 25c | 59.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 58.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 57.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da8…54afbacked Yes | 27c | 56.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 56.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…7f42backed Yes | 59c | 54.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 54.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 50.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 38c | 47.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 46.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 79c | 45.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 67c | 44.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed Yes | 35c | 43.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 69c | 42.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.