Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac34d7de1c4f3765c29b03250fff0f2fe1f44f771d7d8f275f5cbacc16450bd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 1,220$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 5c | 1,111$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 761.67$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 21c | 646.46$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 13c | 387.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…adb9backed Yes | 29c | 376.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 4c | 310.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 304$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 263.53$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 223$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 184.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 163.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 154$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 12c | 151.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 35c | 134$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 13c | 123.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 121.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 28c | 115.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…5cd7backed Yes | 12c | 86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 82.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 27c | 72.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 31c | 71.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 16c | 70.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 69.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 68.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 61.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 77c | 61.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 80c | 59.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 58.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 56.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 28c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 50.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 78c | 50.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 50.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 48.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 69c | 45.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 36c | 44.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 78c | 44.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed No | 79c | 38.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 37.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 38c | 34.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 27.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 71c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 15.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.