World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d6cc5eee8528e70500c9f806f91f9ade0bb7147d9f24a79fe13883224387ca2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 1,452$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.46 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 624.48$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.67 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 557.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 34c | 468.73$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.27 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 43c | 463.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 431.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 30c | 397.59$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 43c | 380$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 373$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 10c | 357.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 327.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 275.06$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 253.56$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 7c | 250.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 211.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 204.76$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 195.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 185.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 169.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 150.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 145$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 18c | 144.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 44c | 132.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 126.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 37c | 124.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 21c | 120.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 45c | 118.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 118.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 115.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 32c | 104.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 102.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…7eb3backed Yes | 43c | 102.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0f…633ebacked Yes | 43c | 100.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 95.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 45c | 93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 17c | 91.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 68c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 86.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 85.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 12c | 84.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 83.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 52c | 82.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed Yes | 25c | 82.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 79.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 46c | 69.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d1ccbacked No | 57c | 63.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 63.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 40c | 62.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 60.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 31c | 60.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed Yes | 44c | 59.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 59.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 65c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Yes | 27c | 58.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…fb74backed Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…6f79backed Yes | 26c | 55.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 54.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 33c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2d…e67cbacked Yes | 38c | 47.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 53c | 47.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 45.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 41.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 31c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 39.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…05e0backed Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 38.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 51c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 41c | 37.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +278.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 42c | 33.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 32.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…e8b9backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 63c | 31.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 28.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 59c | 27.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 55c | 26.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 78c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.