TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,670 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes38c1,452$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.4644138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No78c624.48$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.6714959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes16c557.46$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7112816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes34c468.73$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.273925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes43c463.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes7c431.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8322111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes30c397.59$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.083321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes43c380$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.055052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c373$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5439952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked Yes10c357.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.88520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes7c327.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3614521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13532748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No56c275.06$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7834354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No61c253.56$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.1823551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed Yes7c250.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.775913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes7c211.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8423044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No59c204.76$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7727143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes43c195.37$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0212055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No56c185.24$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.513053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes11c169.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1824637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes11c150.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4344428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No62c145$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4452850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes18c144.73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.746330.2%19 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes44c132.64$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.363030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes35c126.88$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.844355.8%24 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes37c124.07$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9112040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes21c120.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.052626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked Yes17c119.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes45c118.51$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.333225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes33c118.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.67933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No55c115.08$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1931152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c110$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7628558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No55c109.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.098844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c105$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5223459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes32c104.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.455855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No59c102.94$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3718035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x046c…7eb3backed Yes43c102.61$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e0f…633ebacked Yes43c100.66$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4511045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No79c95.61$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.635954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes45c93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.851040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes17c91.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.876224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c2…6b76backed No68c88$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.65100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes42c86.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368438.1%32 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No70c85.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8621844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes12c84.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.16955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes39c83.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2913646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No52c82.84$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.764862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8ad…a859backed Yes25c82.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No60c79.24$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.515054%27 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No78c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.640648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes33c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.117345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes46c69.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.991145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes39c65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d1ccbacked No57c63.15$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No72c63.12$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4615766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes40c62.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No58c60.79$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.358856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes31c60.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.768743.7%38 W · 49 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf57…52f2backed Yes44c59.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.471566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No59c59.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5218662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No65c59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.656960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9337…72c0backed Yes27c58.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a7…fb74backed Yes43c56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f57…6f79backed Yes26c55.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No66c54.02$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4118445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes33c53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.715248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1ac…a769backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e2d…e67cbacked Yes38c47.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes40c47.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1918158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No53c47.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.17842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No70c45.53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7812055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes46c43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.783756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No73c41.88$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2814954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes31c40.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.757129.6%21 W · 50 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No69c39.17$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.114467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0685…05e0backed Yes36c39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No56c38.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9716051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No51c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.853158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e0…3884backed Yes41c37.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+278.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed No55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes47c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes42c33.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.224355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes43c32.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No57c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7614454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d76…e8b9backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No63c31.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.595756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1246330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No56c29.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No56c28.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3615056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No59c27.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.072850%14 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No55c26.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.868672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4fc…7a72backed No78c25.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.711145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.