World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff2dc04870472207747ef8e5183ef4e48e43c73743f7d130a364333a87556a3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 35c | 2,112$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.1 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 44c | 916.94$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.94 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 652.68$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.31 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 47c | 559.12$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.49 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 542.5$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.11 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 532.7$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.42 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 30c | 529.87$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.32 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 46c | 454.49$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.36 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 401.05$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.01 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 369$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 31c | 341.77$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.12 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 322.92$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.78 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 272.3$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.87 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 259.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 253.56$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.94 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 238.55$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.57 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 42c | 238$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.04 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 235.09$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 231.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.25 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 41c | 222.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 211.68$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 181.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 176$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 35c | 174$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 170$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 65c | 154.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 32c | 151$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 142.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 74c | 139.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 73c | 136.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 44c | 136$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 51c | 132.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 129.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 46c | 125.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 47c | 124$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 120.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 41c | 117.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 42c | 110.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 109.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…3307backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…ae20backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 99.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 37c | 94.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 38c | 94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 53c | 89.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 89.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 45c | 89.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 24c | 88.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 87.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 60c | 82.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 79.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 18c | 76.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 76.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 66c | 76.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 74c | 75.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 66cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 40c | 75.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 75.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 40c | 74.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 31c | 73.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 49c | 71.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 69.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6b71…d6a8backed Yes | 43c | 69.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 43c | 64.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 63.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 37c | 59.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 54.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 30c | 54.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 28c | 54.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 54c | 54.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…896ebacked Yes | 44c | 53.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +53%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 37c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 59c | 50.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 50.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 48.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 27c | 47.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 50c | 47.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 39c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 44c | 45.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 70c | 45.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 41c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 52c | 44.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 44.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 57c | 43.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 43.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 71c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 56c | 42.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 60c | 40.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 53c | 40.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 64c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 39.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.