TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,950 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes35c2,112$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.17623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes44c916.94$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.9423723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No40c652.68$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.3114959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes47c559.12$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.495052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c542.5$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.1139231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No52c532.7$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.4244138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No30c529.87$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3221844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No46c454.49$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.363925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No69c401.05$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.0112055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No21c369$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2128558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes31c341.77$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.123321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No38c322.92$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7822355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No65c272.3$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8734354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No40c259.29$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6521854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c253.56$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9423551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No57c238.55$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5752850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes42c238$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.043225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c235.09$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13932748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c231.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2523459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf3…369dbacked No41c222.62$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes76c211.68$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6723044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c181.32$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4740648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No70c176$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.485072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No35c174$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.215916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No44c170$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9939952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes65c154.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.874748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes32c151$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.682536%9 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No12c142.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.997335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes74c139.49$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.616955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes73c136.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes44c136$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.461145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes51c132.24$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9618342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes41c129.85$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.965843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes46c125.24$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.033030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes47c124$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.974240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c120.91$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7231152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No41c117.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.075954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No42c110.34$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1313155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c109.85$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9288448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84d…3307backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479756.7%55 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad6…ae20backed Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No53c99.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536043.3%26 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No66c99.71$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.814862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c99.32$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.532639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No37c94.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.715957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No38c94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2912640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe9…56d9backed No53c89.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.71060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes29c89.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5515036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes45c89.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.064831.3%15 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed No24c88.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.575913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No50c87.79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.643240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No60c82.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.861353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No65c79.25$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.75054%27 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No18c76.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1422111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No62c76.61$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.168844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes66c76.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1510629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed Yes74c75.81$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.691190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick66cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No40c75.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes32c75.19$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.393842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7071…91dfbacked No40c74.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.66922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes31c73.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.458739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes49c71.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.532466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c69.52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4144428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6b71…d6a8backed Yes43c69.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+131.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No43c64.91$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.081338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No54c63.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.315766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.616738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.44355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes37c59.69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.862857.1%16 W · 12 L+6.8wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+106.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes68c56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.926330.2%19 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No62c54.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0917952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes30c54.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.722626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes28c54.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.22634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf956…9bf0backed Yes54c54.16$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.09683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+62.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x011f…896ebacked Yes44c53.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.04475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+53%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes37c52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.586357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e6…6423backed Yes59c50.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.794045%18 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes42c50.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.273161.3%19 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+39.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9711045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes35c48.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2718662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes27c47.22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.477129.6%21 W · 50 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No50c47.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6212055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed Yes39c46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.06771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+62%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes44c45.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.77580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+64.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No70c45.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.755170.6%36 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes41c45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes52c44.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.514521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes45c44.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.643735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes57c43.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.687248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No53c43.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1846330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No70c43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.287561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No71c43$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6211344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes56c42.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.845547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes60c40.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.081855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+40%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No53c40.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.421729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x308f…8607backed No68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No64c39.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.391936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No52c39.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5514467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.