World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe83550a476f49de8b16def48dc03f97e6e98c915c95e64facd8aa9eb227e4f61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 2,146$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.96 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,718$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.42 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,085$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 19c | 696.46$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 651.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 12c | 556.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 14c | 532.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 431.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…ae20backed Yes | 9c | 344.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 334.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 327.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 76c | 250$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 224.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 211.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 10c | 209.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 9c | 204.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 203.84$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 8c | 196.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 15c | 193.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 11c | 191.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 19c | 191.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 30c | 179.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 177.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 12c | 166.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 37c | 162.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 161.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 18c | 158.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 16c | 158.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 16c | 149.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 14c | 137.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 14c | 133.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 31c | 132.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 17c | 124.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 16c | 117.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 18c | 114.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 80c | 112.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 21c | 104.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 37c | 92.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 16c | 79.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 75.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 23c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 32c | 74.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 73.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 17c | 69.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939e…dc67backed Yes | 17c | 69.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 24c | 61.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed Yes | 22c | 44.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 27c | 40.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 36c | 36.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 80c | 32.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed No | 73c | 26.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0818…ebd5backed No | 79c | 20.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.