Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82de12c273745329c032c65e4637d0b1a7e7a3cd6bfe37de7f88c4e84f06eb70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 1,375$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 35c | 1,307$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 40c | 1,222$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.96 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 904.71$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 838.97$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 28c | 757.61$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.33 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 23c | 631.62$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 594.12$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 580.68$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 407.64$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 399.78$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.63 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 20c | 324.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 41c | 294.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.46 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 31c | 289.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 22c | 286.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 35c | 278.92$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 33c | 278.17$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 254.53$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 254$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 33c | 250.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 248.89$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 232.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 227.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 37c | 194.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 194.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 173.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 169.81$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a2…3959backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 154.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 154.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 150.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 136.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 67c | 131.17$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 38c | 131.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 129$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 127.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 68c | 127.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 25c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 115.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 72c | 114.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 109$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 105.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 104$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…2df7backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 31c | 99.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 97.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 96.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 93.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 91.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed No | 79c | 89.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 77c | 84.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 82.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 76.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 75.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 74.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 71c | 73.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…1145backed Yes | 29c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 69.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 69.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 36c | 69.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 67.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 27c | 66.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…9372backed No | 65c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 63.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 62.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 38c | 62.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 59.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 43c | 58.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 26c | 58.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 68c | 55.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked Yes | 36c | 54.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 26c | 54.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 51.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 65c | 50.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 50.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 73c | 50.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 49.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 49.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…b9b4backed Yes | 32c | 46.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 61c | 43.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 35c | 42.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 64c | 40.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 40.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 40.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.