Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5d9d5c89726cdf846d235d1f74cf7fd252cef84eea32f47328c08aaa9011c7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 48c | 1,211$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 56c | 888.57$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.57 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 588.1$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 513$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 497.54$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 420.27$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 61c | 407.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.54 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 400.13$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 363.48$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 47c | 340.54$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 53c | 313.35$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 273.22$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 246.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 244.82$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.65 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 219.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 76c | 213.66$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a2…3959backed Yes | 48c | 206.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 205.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 39c | 187.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 54c | 172.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.09 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 159.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 50c | 159.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 154.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 65c | 153.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 149.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 75c | 135.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 129$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 45c | 128.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 55c | 121.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 50c | 120.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 118.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 116.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 49c | 109$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 105.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 54c | 105.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 35c | 104.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 104$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 53c | 102.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 100.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 49c | 96.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 36c | 93.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 90.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 13c | 90.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 58c | 90.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 60c | 82.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 37c | 82.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked No | 34c | 81.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 78.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 46c | 73.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 40c | 70.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 69.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 66c | 67.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 46c | 64.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 78c | 64.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 63c | 63.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 63.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 62.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 46c | 61.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 24c | 58.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 58.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 52.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 50.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…b385backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 45c | 49.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 25c | 48.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 37c | 48.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 75c | 46.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 45c | 44.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 58c | 42.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 65c | 42.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 59c | 42.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 49c | 41.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 45c | 41.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 74c | 40.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 62c | 37.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…257abacked Yes | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 35c | 36.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed Yes | 75c | 36.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 35.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 42c | 35.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 59c | 33.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…3ae9backed No | 45c | 33.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.