Music · resolved market
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6381e76dcb3d6d67f660fb0af1e5cdc64852fcd0e64889f5d3a3f07420d56c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 18c | 4,436$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 13c | 1,475$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.77 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,188$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed No | 30c | 1,030$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 70c | 365$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked Yes | 70c | 333$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 70c | 332$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed No | 39c | 208$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 61c | 208$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 187.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 29c | 132.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 12c | 91.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…f045backed Yes | 75c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1b…1ad4backed Yes | 75c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31?this page
- Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.