Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bc4219544d3861c90b28c983ce5dc0e2a1cf737d3c7c596f80815fe39add308
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4df…db33backed No | 26c | 3,512$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…479cbacked Yes | 74c | 3,512$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1c…d15dbacked Yes | 79c | 2,143$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…3730backed No | 21c | 2,140$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 12c | 694.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…e488backed No | 22c | 425.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 343.31$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…485abacked Yes | 78c | 276.05$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed No | 20c | 274.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…0bbabacked No | 27c | 224.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 71c | 210.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 12c | 201.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 36c | 177.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…5c47backed No | 28c | 173.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 23c | 171.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 8c | 161.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 151.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa580…b99abacked No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 70c | 147.69$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 42c | 139.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 60c | 119.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 35c | 111.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 39c | 110.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 16c | 103.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 14c | 102.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed No | 52c | 96.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed No | 13c | 95.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…84fbbacked Yes | 53c | 94.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 45c | 89.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 85.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 79.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fa…f447backed Yes | 65c | 77.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes | 73c | 75.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e0…1f63backed Yes | 79c | 72.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 54c | 67.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 46c | 66.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed Yes | 54c | 65.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…5ab0backed Yes | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 46c | 63.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 64c | 62.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x095c…d20cbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 53c | 57.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 56.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…af66backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a5…28f1backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…a704backed Yes | 67c | 41.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…24aabacked Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 29c | 39.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…a9d9backed No | 38c | 37.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7464…71cfbacked Yes | 63c | 35.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…20d4backed Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 59c | 30.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 55c | 28.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed Yes | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3a…dd89backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 52c | 22.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc687…d5b9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…766fbacked Yes | 57c | 19.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…ee61backed Yes | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63cf…9e7cbacked Yes | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fe…e454backed Yes | 56c | 17.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05e…bb1bbacked Yes | 57c | 17.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab0…ddecbacked Yes | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…c312backed Yes | 73c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C or below on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.