Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bc67a48f4cabd173ebdf485d553e5d20f762a6361c492fc4bb565d790fc84fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x610c…998fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,672$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f20…b2f4backed Yes | 4c | 3,126$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e6…9b62backed Yes | 2c | 1,174$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 15c | 1,090$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.29 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…488bbacked Yes | 15c | 670.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 17c | 606.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 537.4$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 9c | 499.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 7c | 498.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3729…f7c3backed Yes | 34c | 355.81$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 15c | 339.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 260.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a1…c037backed Yes | 39c | 260.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 15c | 258.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 10c | 250.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…72cbbacked Yes | 12c | 250.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 16c | 224$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 46c | 209.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…5c47backed Yes | 8c | 206.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 21c | 191.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…de45backed No | 71c | 183.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 176.27$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 11c | 165.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked Yes | 42c | 161.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…d10dbacked No | 69c | 159.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 8c | 144.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 143.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…5e5bbacked Yes | 13c | 136.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…2c54backed Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 129.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 31c | 119.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 10c | 105.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes | 18c | 104$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…b42dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab8…c3b0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…485abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…4e67backed Yes | 14c | 97.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 47c | 96.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 13c | 95.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a3…70c0backed Yes | 15c | 93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 15c | 91.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ea…104ebacked Yes | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 38c | 84.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c21…1632backed Yes | 30c | 84.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 82.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 82.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 79.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 69c | 77.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 14c | 75.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab0…ddecbacked Yes | 41c | 75.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc03…141abacked Yes | 30c | 70.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 26c | 61.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 18c | 60.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…639bbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56a4…30a3backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf5…83ddbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7614…e82dbacked Yes | 30c | 47.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Yes | 36c | 41.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…24aabacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 32c | 39.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…e1bdbacked Yes | 30c | 38.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 60c | 35.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 57c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316b…4f42backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…a885backed Yes | 53c | 24.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…8f4abacked No | 60c | 17.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…afcfbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…db07backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 74cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 79c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C or below on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.