Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8433670f312ac7e4da05ebf58242122dcf412243ca3a8d02766e0aae1a4a711f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 31c | 6,971$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,835.35 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed Yes | 64c | 3,968$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 66c | 3,963$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,624.76 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 15c | 3,610$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,075.19 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 9c | 3,093$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.48 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8f…4dc1backed Yes | 42c | 2,908$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…209cbacked Yes | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 22c | 1,839$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.87 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 25c | 1,377$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.65 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 21c | 1,267$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.99 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 65c | 1,201$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 22c | 1,196$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.08 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 37c | 1,010$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.3 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 38c | 980.21$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.88 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 70c | 916$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 23c | 807$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.97 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 20c | 704.37$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.22 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 65c | 650$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.82 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 78c | 600.99$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.77 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 29c | 559.31$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 23c | 490.01$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.1 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 437.12$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.78 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked No | 9c | 350$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +253.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 60c | 350$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.5 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 73c | 328.55$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…41bebacked Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 298.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.14 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 24c | 288.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.42 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 256$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 248.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.59 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 21c | 229.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.64 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 35c | 202.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…9694backed No | 12c | 200$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +303.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 17c | 192$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.36 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…ebcebacked Yes | 78c | 167.5$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 16c | 167.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a3debacked Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 144.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 8c | 135$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.54 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 101.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked No | 17c | 100.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 97.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 71c | 93.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 21c | 91.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 23c | 90.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 21c | 89.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9748…91e1backed No | 16c | 81.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +540.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 21c | 81.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 21c | 81.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 21c | 79.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 71c | 70.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 32c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…bc74backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e9…94d8backed No | 39c | 48.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 45.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 80c | 44.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebbf…cf44backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…dd2bbacked Yes | 49c | 34.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…610cbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 78c | 28.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 71c | 21.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 71c | 21.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…14fcbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?this page
- Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.