Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda460c72662977eaa1b7d45579c3cdd0bee65819fd9e749af50af8f8a6ff4252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 18c | 2,159$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.75 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 10c | 1,723$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.92 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 29c | 1,582$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.01 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 835.1$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.23 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 811.5$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.45 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 738.14$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.18 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 67c | 732.44$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 9c | 702.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.93 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 34c | 660$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.4 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 594$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.61 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 490$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.36 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 437.11$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.96 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 370.98$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.51 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 23c | 357.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.93 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 41c | 343$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa285…9394backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +675.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 298.16$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.8 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 291.72$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 79c | 248.58$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.74 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 230$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.02 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 23c | 136.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…14fcbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 21c | 90.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 18c | 82.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 38c | 69.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…8232backed Yes | 36c | 53.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed Yes | 59c | 48.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 44.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 31.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 57c | 24.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 71c | 16.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?this page
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.