Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x714a0e15d51e7e197d630e225df19b304307a36365b9bca8727d27b696a287d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 21c | 380.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 79c | 281.57$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 252.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed No | 5c | 219$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 64c | 200.37$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 15c | 194.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…0975backed No | 9c | 193.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 177.08$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 175.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.54 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 171.72$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 139.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa809…ad85backed Yes | 55c | 133.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.2 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…7904backed No | 74c | 128.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 29c | 121.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.23 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 112.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 29c | 108.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 55c | 107.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…de59backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa630…8d42backed Yes | 23c | 83.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e7…05e6backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 75c | 76.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f54ebacked Yes | 79c | 75.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 43c | 74.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…addebacked Yes | 45c | 69.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 24c | 68.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 31c | 67.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 49c | 67.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 16c | 65.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 16c | 64.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd4…8a34backed No | 23c | 58.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 54.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed Yes | 22c | 52.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 24c | 44.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…583bbacked No | 49c | 44.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 36c | 37.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa90e…154fbacked No | 45c | 32.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 29.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…14efbacked No | 74c | 24.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…1614backed Yes | 57c | 22.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a7…1686backed No | 66c | 17.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 15°F or below on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or higher on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.