Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5db9b3bd8e06dd6582bb314b275b7cff368e1adc98033f7c11662590e4cc77a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 2c | 5,957$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.87 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ba…71debacked No | 62c | 5,500$3,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…ea4fbacked Yes | 38c | 5,500$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 3,602$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 2,857$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,132$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,202$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.38 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 78c | 521.74$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 335.55$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c8…22b9backed No | 68c | 322.34$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 21c | 314.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 74c | 297.6$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 16c | 270.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…1a9cbacked Yes | 13c | 208$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…9fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 176.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…addebacked Yes | 14c | 165.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 16c | 132.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…23f5backed No | 78c | 127.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 23c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 117.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 115.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 111.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…ad22backed Yes | 16c | 104.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…ae45backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 22c | 90.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d39fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 73c | 71.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed Yes | 28c | 52.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 25c | 47.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 33c | 46.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfca4…1386backed Yes | 55c | 45.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…bdcdbacked Yes | 22c | 45.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 44.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 42.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5078…e608backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a39…2d3cbacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…650ebacked No | 73c | 34.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 28.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 27.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 27.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe041…3ed3backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…1614backed No | 73c | 24.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…81c4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…30bdbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…bb01backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 62c | 16.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 15°F or below on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or higher on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.