Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaca82ef9cdc375c79211faf7cfc0541d3aa789ae609b654d3ec8e0d2d4f4d28a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 1c | 4,065$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 1,738$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 34c | 1,370$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.24 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 25c | 1,238$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.71 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 35c | 1,054$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.22 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed No | 2c | 1,041$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 28c | 1,032$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.14 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 64c | 1,000$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac79…dbf0backed No | 16c | 930.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 5c | 659.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked No | 4c | 642.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…e441backed No | 4c | 579.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 413.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…43fdbacked No | 12c | 405.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 43c | 386.37$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.71 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 8c | 364.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 4c | 320.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked No | 72c | 305.17$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.74 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed No | 60c | 300.66$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.39 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 43c | 281.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.09 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…edfbbacked No | 6c | 244$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed No | 75c | 207.14$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 16c | 193.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 32c | 174$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…6056backed No | 8c | 146.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5468…8a4abacked Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…ff76backed No | 75c | 136.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed No | 56c | 123.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 120.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed Yes | 28c | 116.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 21c | 113.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 111.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…8bf4backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…14babacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed Yes | 25c | 90.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed Yes | 28c | 75.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 75c | 66.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…7201backed Yes | 35c | 66.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 27c | 64.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 28c | 57.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b2…b310backed Yes | 38c | 52.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…a838backed Yes | 25c | 44.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 35.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…1e1abacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c7…3cccbacked No | 64c | 27.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…81a6backed Yes | 59c | 21.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…3cebbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf6…a996backed No | 49c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…3b97backed No | 74c | 16.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…10fabacked No | 74c | 14.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 19°F or below on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 30°F or higher on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.