Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6f0b9ceaac505c448bc1181ba3f9a347a871cc01c36f31b70c5a2eed05d50a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 3,548$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…4d89backed Yes | 7c | 2,921$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 5c | 2,569$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.71 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…d736backed Yes | 5c | 2,199$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 1c | 1,298$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 12c | 1,215$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.12 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 10c | 1,173$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.36 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,133$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 715.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked No | 71c | 683.67$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.94 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 5c | 622.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 3c | 600.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…8bf4backed Yes | 6c | 600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…973ebacked Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 3c | 499.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…7829backed Yes | 5c | 385.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…6a3ebacked Yes | 6c | 364.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac79…dbf0backed Yes | 8c | 353.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 53c | 266.79$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 248.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…d0debacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 8c | 197.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11bb…43eebacked Yes | 7c | 195.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…8463backed Yes | 6c | 182.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 26c | 174$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 10c | 163.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 145.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 144.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e1…40e0backed Yes | 13c | 107.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 107.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 55c | 101.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…a838backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…70f4backed Yes | 40c | 88.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 21c | 87.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5654…068abacked Yes | 34c | 85.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 39c | 84.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 69.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 69.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…2f7bbacked No | 72c | 69.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 54c | 67.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…7988backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 32c | 53.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…ff6abacked Yes | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a9…64f3backed Yes | 22c | 46.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 62c | 44.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…9f2abacked Yes | 34c | 42.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 65c | 41.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…7201backed Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a6…5da0backed No | 64c | 40.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 34c | 37.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 30c | 34.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…d1cfbacked Yes | 66c | 33.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed No | 55c | 29.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x650e…65c5backed No | 71c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…032cbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 59c | 19.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…d7fabacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…7af3backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…afcfbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab2…9791backed No | 78c | 13.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 19°F or below on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 30°F or higher on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.